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Dreaming up the shape of cars to come21 August 2012 byPaul MarksMagazine issue 2878. Subscribe and saveFor similar stories, visit theInterviewsand Cars and MotoringTopic Guides Motor industry futurist Sheryl Connelly looks forward to the rise of megacities and self-driving cars Why do businesses need futurists?If you came up with an absolutely genius idea for a car right now it would take three years for the rubber to hit the road, so to speak - and by then it might not seem so brilliant, so relevant. So we have to be really careful about what we place our bets on. It is daunting. To help do that I look at social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends to try to understand the global forces that shape our values, attitudes and beliefs as consumers. Does that mean you have to be a car nut?
Not at all. I'm not a car person. I never look at the car industry. Ford has plenty of experts that can do that. My job is to look outside the automotive industry and to bring to light things outside their areas of analysis, beyond their scope. My key role is to spot trends that build a business case for the technologies our engineers invent. And how do you present this "future" to them?
It is simple scenario planning, which is basically telling plausible, provocative, fictional stories about the future - but which are based on facts, on current trends. What kind of scenarios will influence what future cars are like?
Earth's population has hit 7 billion and will grow by 2050 to 9 billion. That means megacities of more than 10 million people will proliferate, and that raises questions about how people will live, work and - for Ford - move about. In Beijing today, they have 5-hour commutes. During the 2008 Olympics, they had 12 days of traffic gridlock. Our Traffic Jam Assist technology will drive your car for you in a jam while you relax. Later, cars will talk to each other to route around traffic. In 10 years they'll even talk to road infrastructure and drive in follow-the-leader style, jam-free platoons. What other factors do you consider?
Well, populations are ageing. And that has an effect on the community and on transport. One thing we're working on is engineering cars that are easy to drive at ever older ages. We do that using special suits that are designed to constrain our testers' dexterity to that of elderly people with restricted mobility. What about the "connected" car, how do you see that developing so it is safe?
Ford's Sync system, which links smartphone music playlists, texts and calls to the console using Bluetooth, was not designed for safety, it was designed for connectivity. But if customers are going to bring all their devices into the car anyway this is the safest way to do it. We use Nuance's voice-recognition technology, as used by Apple's Siri assistant, to minimise distraction: in simulators we found people glance at their phone eight to nine times when making a call in the car - but that drops to three with voice-activated calls. There is also a "do not disturb" button that shuts off incoming calls and sends a text saying "I'm driving and can't answer" to people who call or text. Profile
Sheryl Connelly is corporate futurist at the Ford Motor Company in Dearborn, Michigan. After working as a customer adviser at Ford, she turned seven years ago to predicting social changes that affect the motor markets
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Peak Cars?Sat Aug 18 08:37:22 BST 2012 by Sandy HendersonElsewhere the concept of peak oil has been raised as something that if it isn't happening now, will happen in the relatively near future.
Other trends may make car ownership flatline. Already more than half of the human population live in large urban areas. Using a car is not the same as owning a car, and schemes whereby a hired car is readily available and the driver does not have the problems of long term parking, finance, or parking difficulties in busy parts of the day and place, will become more popular. This will obviously have a big effect on car manufacturing, and the hire companies will have significant bargaining power. For somebody not clocking up a large mileage each year, ownership costs can far exceed running costs for new and nearly new cars on a per mile basis
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Absence of firm political direction results in low road space and capacity. With the income pyramid flattening and increased mass production of small cars the world is headed to a chaos in road use and pollution. It is likely the issues of pollution would be addressed through technology such as 'air-car' and REEV which the Tata Group India is working upon. It is the traffic density that will remain a perpetual challenge. Dispersal of cities to the suburbs and away is being pursued. The advent of flexitime and video conferencing cut the need to travel. Megatrends in energy, information technology, education would all bring about newer social dynamics and the car of future would need to fit into such framework
login and replyreport this commentPeak Cars?Tue Aug 21 19:17:52 BST 2012 by Eric KvaalenIndia, and the rest of the world, needs a carbon tax to dissuade people drastically from using cars.
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view threadCar Future?Mon Aug 27 12:03:17 BST 2012 by Michel CartierI'm not sure the car has a long term future no matter what you do to it. The only way I can see that will solve the traffic jam for good is the death of suburbia. We will hang on to this dream until we can't move no more.
login and replyreport this commentCar Future?Mon Aug 27 19:28:01 BST 2012 by Eric KvaalenThere is another way to solve the traffic jam. When the gasoline runs out!
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